Swine Flu Pandemic & Web Viral Panic

27 04 2009

Whether or not the current outbreak of swine flu translates into a world pandemic, we are already seeing information and and data spreading around the web at a staggering pace. 

The speed at which information travels brings opportunities and threats and we need to treat information we see on line with caution and respect.  The social web will deliver information on which we can rely and data which will deceive. 

Many news organisations around the world today are linking to a Google map showing almost live data on reported cases. Whilst this may be a very useful tool, what few of the news organisations report is that it appears to have been created by Henry Niman, a biomedical researcher with a history of using the internet to forecast doom. Niman has claimed global pandemics were under way several times before.

The spread of disinformation does not mean that there is no risk.   The truth is at this point we just don’t know the scale of the threat.   A much better source of information may come from Google.  ‘Google Flu trends’ which I wrote about in PR Media Blog  last November, uses search terms to predict how many people in a particular area are searching for relevant information about flu.  There is a high correlation between the searches and numbers of actual cases of flu and they can show incidence faster official channels like the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).   Google believes it can accurately estimate flu levels one to two weeks faster than published CDC reports.

The problem at the moment is that the data covers just the US and is only updated weekly.  If Google were able to update faster and use the technology to cover the whole planet we would have a much better picture of what is actually happening.


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Categories : Journalism, Social Web, User Generated Content

Why I’m a Bit Sick of Viral Marketing

31 03 2009

 

Viral marketing is the idea that you can harness social networks or other communications channels to produce increases in brand awareness or to achieve product sales using a ‘viral ‘ process  that mimics the spread of infection.  The origins of the idea are probably linked to the concept of computer viruses that spread from machine to machine seemingly unaided.

As digital PR specialists we will be asked by clients to assist them with on line viral marketing.  It is a mistake to enter into a campaign with viral marketing as the central feature.  That is not to say it is impossible to deliver, but it is exceptionally difficult.  To imply that a piece of content such as an image or a video clip will achieve viral status at the outset of a campaign is a bit like guaranteeing that the campaign will be of national award winning quality before you have even come up with the ideas. 

In any case I prefer the idea of internet memes to the ‘viral’ concept.  It is a better description and it carries more explanation which gives as a better chance of providing clients with clear explanation and managing expectations.  

Richard Dawkins, the author of the ‘God Delusion’ originally came up with the term ‘meme’ in a book published in the mid seventies called ‘The Selfish Gene’.  It was coined to describe how Darwinian principles could explain the spread of ideas and cultural phenomena like fashion, music, catch-phrases, architectural styles and even beliefs.  Dawkins argued that memes propagate themselves in societies in a way that is similar to the behaviour of a gene or virus.  The meme is cultural unit or idea that spreads rapidly.  The term has gained greater currency with the growth of the internet.  

Although we can’t eliminate the human element in propogating the spread we can’t control or guarantee it.  We therefore should not claim we can deliver it in any quantifiable sense.

This article is adapted from a more in depth piece in the book ‘Public Relations and the Social Web’ published this week and available  from Amazon.


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Categories : Social Web, User Generated Content


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